Florida Housing Market Predictions 2022

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A brief summary

Housing markets across the US have lit up since the economic recovery of the country kicked into action. One of the fastest growing states in all of this was Florida, and Tampa took the cake as one of the hottest housing markets in 2022. Read on to find out the housing market predictions for the country and Florida in particular, for the rest of the year.

Florida Housing Market Predictions 2022 - Table of Contents

Since the pandemic began, the housing market across the US has been on a wild ride. Going from a serious low to flaming hot and it continuing to burn bright into 2022. However, there are rumors that the country is heading into a housing bubble and that a recession could be brewing. Which could lead to the US experiencing a housing market crash. Let’s take a deeper look at what could be next for the housing market and what Florida’s housing market looks like as we head towards the latter part of the year.

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2022’s high home prices

According to J.P. Morgan, the nominal house price index across the US is currently 40% above its low in 2012, and 4% above its 2006 high. In a phenomenal recovery from the initial blow dealt by the pandemic, the housing market has simply soared, and house prices have sky-rocketed along with it.

Currently, the demand is outstripping the supply in the housing market, which has led to the major increase in home prices. This was also largely due to interest rates being low at the start of the pandemic, and therefore mortgages becoming more affordable thanks to lower mortgage rates.

As we continue into 2022 however, mortgage rates are rising and house price growth, while still on an upward path, is slowing. According to J.P. Morgan, some of the highest prices and growth can be found in areas like New York, San Francisco Bay Area, Boston, Denver and Portland.

What’s next for the US housing market?

The longer the upward trajectory continues for the housing market, the more speculation happens around whether it is in a bubble, and whether this could result in the housing market crashing. With inflation on the rise and geopolitical uncertainty, some experts like the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, are predicting that a US housing market bubble is brewing.

In a report issued by the Dallas Fed, they explain that the house price increase doesn’t factor into the theory, but rather the main contributing factors are, “shifts in disposable income, the cost of credit and access to it, supply disruptions, and rising labor and raw construction materials costs are among the economic reasons for sustained real house-price gains.”

The report goes on to say that if there’s a common belief that house prices will continue to rise, this can push the market into a space where it veers from its normal course as people adopt a similar mindset. So, most experts are predicting that over 2022 the market will continue to remain strong, and Fannie Mae has stated that even if an economic contraction had to take place in 2023, the hot housing market could create a “soft landing” for the economy.

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Instead, a less severe recession could happen in 2023 as the demand for new houses is expected to continue to be high. Home prices are predicted to carry on rising, but this is happening at a slower pace now, as the increase in mortgage rates puts a dampener on house price growth. Fannie Mae predicts that in 2022 house prices will rise by a total of 10.8% and in 2023, they will only rise by 3%.

Hottest housing markets

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According to Zillow, 2022’s hottest housing market is Tampa, Florida. The state overall has seen some of the highest house price jumps in the country, with Miami and Tampa leading the charge. Tampa’s housing market has outperformed many others thanks to a few factors; the potential number of buyers being high, the lack of supply, home sales being high and a thriving job market in the city.

Year-on-year however, Florida Realtors have noted that there were fewer sales in 2022 compared to 2021, which indicates the slowing of the housing market frenzy. Christina Pappas, 2022 Florida Realtors President, said, “Housing affordability remains a challenge, and higher mortgage rates may mean some buyers who had previously qualified under a lower rate are forced to rethink their plans. The continued limited supply means that homes are selling at a fast pace. The median time to contract state-wide for single-family existing homes in March was nine days compared to 15 days during the same month a year ago. And the median time to contract for existing condo-townhouse units was 11 days compared to 32 in March 2021.”

Florida’s statistics

Florida Realtors data shows that across the state in March, the number of single-family houses that were sold was 30,793, which was 6.2% less than the same period last year, and condo sales were down by 11.4%. The median sales price was also up by 21.3% in comparison to last year, according to the Florida Realtors Research Department in partnership with local Realtor boards/associations. According to Zillow, the average home value in Tampa in March 2022 was $352,962, a stark 53% increase from the $230,727 price in March 2020.

Where to find affordable real estate 

Many large corporations are purchasing the more affordable housing options in Tampa to rent them out, according to Melanie Atkinson, a realtor for Smith & Associates. The result is that first time homebuyers are finding it difficult to break into the market, as the supply of affordable properties is lower and the increased demand drives prices up. Atkinson advises people to look further afield from the main areas, and also pay attention to new construction taking place.

Predictions for Florida’s housing market in 2022

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In March 2021, Freddie Mac shows that the interest rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage was 4.17% on average, however a year before that the interest rate averaged only 3.08%. Since then, the interest rate has rocketed past 5%, way higher than it was just 2 years ago.

Part of the increase in demand for properties in Florida was around the fact that remote workers were flocking to the Sunshine state, however now that some of these workers will need to go back to the office, this could lead to a slow-down in demand for real estate in Florida. That plus rising interest rates equals a potential dampener on the housing market in Florida.

With the recent increase in mortgage prices as a result of the higher interest rates, the experts are paying close attention to the Florida housing market to see what impact this will have. It’s expected to make a dent in house price growth, but to what extent is hard to say, because there is still a “fear of missing out” mindset present amongst buyers which continues to fuel the market, albeit slower.

The bottom line

Whether the country dips into an economic recession or not, it seems as though the housing market will remain strong for the near future. Perhaps not the same level of growth that the US has been experiencing recently, but growth nonetheless. For real estate investors this is a prime time to capitalize on the opportunities presented in the market, particularly those who are looking at Florida.